# The Economic Calendar — What Moves the Market
ES doesn't move because of news. It moves because of capital allocation. And capital allocation decisions are influenced by economic data. Some data points matter. Most don't. Here's the cheat sheet.
The Data That Moves Markets
Tier 1: Guaranteed Moves
These events will move ES. Not "might." Will. Sometimes 50+ points in minutes.
Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)
- When: First Friday, 8:30am ET
- What: Jobs added/lost last month
- Why it matters: Labor market health drives Fed policy. Strong jobs = tight Fed. Weak jobs = loose Fed.
- Expected move: 40-100 points in the first 30 minutes
- Strategy: Don't trade the first 5 minutes. Wait for the retest. The initial spike is noise.
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
- When: Monthly (usually 2nd or 3rd week), 8:30am ET
- What: Headline and core inflation
- Why it matters: Since 2021, CPI is the most important number. Inflation drives the Fed.
- Expected move: 30-80 points
- Strategy: Watch the core (ex-food and energy). Headline is noisy. Core is what the Fed watches.
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)
- When: 8 times/year, decision at 2:00pm ET, press conference 2:30pm
- What: Fed funds rate decision + statement + dot plot + press conference
- Why it matters: The Fed sets short-term rates, which influence everything.
- Expected move: 50-150 points over the day
- Strategy: Be flat by 1:30pm. Wait for the initial spike to settle. Enter on the 3:00-4:00 reversal if it forms.
Producer Price Index (PPI)
- When: Monthly (usually day before CPI), 8:30am ET
- What: Wholesale inflation
- Why it matters: PPI leads CPI. If producers are paying more, consumers will soon.
- Expected move: 20-50 points
Tier 2: Notable Moves
These can move the market but are less consistent. Context-dependent.
Retail Sales
- Monthly, 8:30am ET
- Consumer spending = 70% of US GDP. Strong retail = strong economy.
- Moves 15-40 points when the number is a clear miss/beat.
ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI
- Monthly, 10:00am ET
- Purchasing managers' surveys. Above 50 = expansion. Below 50 = contraction.
- ISM Manufacturing: 20-40 points. ISM Services: 15-30 points.
- The Services PMI matters more (services are ~80% of US economy).
Jobless Claims (Weekly)
- Every Thursday, 8:30am ET
- Weekly unemployment filings. Not a big mover unless extreme.
- "Extreme" = 50% above/below recent trend. Otherwise, ignore.
GDP
- Quarterly (first estimate, revised twice), 8:30am ET
- Gross domestic product. Broad economic health.
- Headline GDP is backward-looking. The components matter more (consumption, investment).
Durable Goods Orders
- Monthly, 8:30am ET
- Orders for long-lasting goods. Proxy for business investment.
- Core (ex-transportation and defense) is what matters. Headline is noisy.
Consumer Confidence / Michigan Sentiment
- Monthly, 10:00am ET
- Surveys of consumer outlook. Contrarian indicator — when sentiment is extremely low, the market often rallies.
Tier 3: Rarely Moves the Needle
These release on schedule but rarely generate significant ES movement. Sometimes they trigger a 5-point blip. Mostly they don't.
- Housing data (Existing Home Sales, New Home Sales, Housing Starts, Building Permits)
- Industrial Production
- Capacity Utilization
- Business Inventories
- Trade Balance
- Treasury International Capital (TIC) data
- Beige Book (anecdotal Fed district reports)
How to Prepare for a Data Release
90 Minutes Before
Check the consensus estimate. Bloomberg, Reuters, and Briefing.com have estimates. The market has priced in the consensus. The surprise is what moves price.
30 Minutes Before
Halve your position size or go flat. Don't be positioned when the data hits unless you have a specific thesis (and a wide stop).
At the Release
Don't trade the first 60 seconds. The initial spike is institutions hedging and market makers adjusting. It's not a directional signal. Wait for the tape to settle.
5-15 Minutes After
Look for the retest. If NFP is strong and ES initially spikes up, wait for the pullback. Does the pullback hold? If it does, buy the pullback. If it doesn't — if the initial spike gets completely erased — the market is rejecting the good news. That's a short signal.
The Trend Day Pattern
Sometimes the data triggers a trend day. Price moves in one direction all day. The retest never happens — price just keeps going.
Signs of a trend day:
- The initial move holds and continues after 15 minutes
- Every pullback is 3-5 points, not 10-15
- Volume is elevated throughout the day
- Price closes near the extreme of the day's range
On a trend day, don't fade. The trend is real. Add to your position on small pullbacks.
The Fed: More Than Rate Decisions
The Fed has become the most important actor in markets. You need to understand not just what they do, but what they communicate.
The Fed's Tools:
- Fed funds rate: Short-term interest rate target. The headline number.
- Quantitative easing/tightening (QE/QT): Buying or selling bonds to affect long-term rates and liquidity.
- Forward guidance: Statements about future policy. "We will hold rates steady" vs "We are prepared to cut if conditions warrant." The words matter.
- Dot plot: Each FOMC member's rate projection. The median dot = market expectation.
The Dot Plot Trap: The dot plot is not a promise. It's a projection based on current data. When data changes, dots change. Markets that fixate on the dot plot are often wrong.
What to watch: The press conference (2:30pm) is more important than the statement (2:00pm). Powell's ad-lib answers reveal more than prepared language. Watch for:
- Change in key phrases ("transitory" → permanent, "patient" → "prepared to act")
- Answers about specific data points (if he mentions PCE more than CPI, that's where the focus is)
- Body language (tone, confidence, deflection)
The Insider's Calendar
Beyond scheduled data, watch for:
Quarter-end rebalancing: Pension funds rebalance their portfolios. This creates predictable flows in ES during the last week of the quarter.
OPEX (Options Expiration): Third Friday of the month. ES often pins near high-open-interest strikes. The Monday after OPEX has directional drift.
Futures expiration: ES contracts expire quarterly (March, June, September, December). The roll period (8-5 days before expiration) has higher volume but can get messy.
Earnings season: ES is made of 500 companies. When AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, META report, their weight in the index means ES moves. Mark earnings dates for the mega-caps.
Our Calendar Integration
Our model receives calendar features:
- Days to next FOMC event
- Days to next NFP
- Is the current day an economic data day? (binary)
- Is volatility expected based on upcoming events?
During non-data days, the model relies more on technical and order flow features. During data days, it adds a "data pending" feature that tells it to hold signals until the release passes.
The system doesn't try to predict the data outcome. That's a different game. It adjusts its behavior based on when the data releases. The model learned this from months of feature tracking: trades initiated 30 minutes before NFP have a 35% win rate. Trades initiated 90 minutes after NFP have a 52% win rate. The model figured this out on its own.